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will be addressed and what other long-term anchoring factor for the economic policies developed in, say, the united states and japan. those are factors of uncertainty that really prevent people from making the investment decisions, the hiring decisions, the foreign direct investment decisions that would otherwise help growth the world over. >> pelley: if we cross the fiscal cliff, we go over the edge, do you think the united states would go back into recession? >> if it was not addressed very shortly, yes. >> pelley: and why are yo so certain of that? >> well, you just look at the numbers. that would entail a growth contraction of about 2% in a given year. so if you assume that the u.s. economy forecast growth next year is 2%, 2% minus 2% equals zero. you are pretty much at the recession stage. >> pelley: there are about 12.5 million americans who lost their jobs in the great recession. we have seen our economy in recession or stumbling along since late 2007. and a lot of americans just want to know when does this end. >> well, i would say that there is good news lurking out there. and in particula
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